Thursday, September 01, 2005

Has the first domino fallen?

So this is the thing that worries me. I'm talking to em yesterday and she mentioned that she was a bit upset after talking to her friend. After inquiring as to why, she said, "Oh, you know like this is the beginning of the end kind of stuff, the Peak oil scenario." I asked further questions and now I'm worried. Especially reading today that gas is anticipated to rise to $5 per gallon. Doubling in price again, much like the housing prices in many parts of the country have in the past few years. But this price rise is going to have some very serious repercussions, because it isn't likely to go down. While oil extraction and refining are running at capacity and there is likely less oil to be found in the future, prices will only continue to rise.

And here's the problem: shipping goods is going to become drastically more expensive. Consequently, everything is going to increase in price. Which means that suddenly everyone is a whole lot poorer, their purchasing power drastically reduced. And then nobody can afford to buy your house, because they have to eat first, so the real estate prices will crash. This is wholly different from the Internet crash, because this oil problem is not based on speculation, the quantity of oil is limited on Earth even as we guzzle it up in ever increasing annual quantities. Obviously, this can't be sustained, and so I'm worried, this could be bad, this period of adjustment to other energy sources and the possibility of descending into a depression-like era.
Normally, I'm pollyanna, "Oh, why worry about that, nothing you can do to stop it, so why choose unhappiness" etc. I guess it's because I want to somehow prepare for it, before it's too late. But how?


dantallion said...

I wish I had reassuring words for you about all this, but like you, the data that I'm seeing is that we're in for a pretty rough road ahead.

Anonymous said...

I'm afraid you're right. This is the beginning of the next American recession. And that may prompt global recession. Many European nations already have flat growth and double-dig. unemployment. Look out!

_Psycho said...

You theory... That's like in Madmax movies ! :)

The Wisdom of Wislon said...

Ah Pollyanna- my mum's a big Hayley Mills fan

but that's so way off the point here and nothing to do with anything really, sorry i'll you all get back on track to the serious issues.

MJ said...

It's interesting, isn't it, the level of situation-accepting/adaptation that will be required of North Americans in the next couple years or so with regard to gas prices?

Found your blog from Bug's Butt's comments (I liked your comment).

Have a great day!

Ace said...

Yep, I'm in Melbourne, but i've been reading the economist , business week etc. and the oil crisis comes up all the time and its getting me worried too.

And you're right about everything being more expensive and economies the world over are going to be affected.

The only way i see is conserving energy -> Reduce the demand.
Doesn't seem like much but if its 20 million people decrease their daily petrol consumption by 1l, that would result in a decrease in the demand for petrol by 20 million litres.

Anonymous said...

Awww, don't mention the bats, the poor bastards will be seeing them soon enough. Judging from all the really bad ideas I see government officials coming up with, it is better for the crash to happen and bankrupt the system than it is for things to continue this way.

Go out to the country with Ida and I forgot his name though I can see his face, and start raising goats. It's sustainable!